Malawi Macadamia Season 2026: Halfway Through and Eyes on China

Malawi's 2026 macadamia harvest is now approximately 50% complete, with the country's two flagship commercial producers — Gala Macs, operating across 2,050 hectares in Namitete, and Jacoma Estates, situated in Mzuzu — navigating what is shaping up to be ana interesting season.

 

China: The Prize on the Horizon

The most anticipated development for Malawi's industry is the imminent GACC approval that would unlock direct macadamia shipments into China.The country’s demand has surged by nearly 70% in recent years, reaching an estimated 29,500 metric tons in kernel equivalent, far exceeding earlier projections. It is expected both in-shell and kernel sales into China are expected to rise further in 2026, with the forecasted removal of import tariffs on African-origin macadamias opening the door wider.  African-based suppliers, including Malawi, are hopeful about Chinese intentions to drop tariffs on products imported from the continent. Securing GACC approval would be transformative, giving Gala Macs and Jacoma a direct, high-value channel that currently must route through third-party origins.

Prices: Wholes Lead, Ingredients Lag

The global pricing picture in March 2026 is nuanced and reflects the market intelligence on the ground. Whole kernel prices have risen, while half kernel and ingredient styles have slipped creating a widening gap driven by growing volumes of halves and a still-developing ingredient market. The nuts in shell (=NIS) transactions stay thin as buyers weigh post-Chinese New Year inventory positions and monitor domestic supply signals from China's own crop.

Looking ahead, global supply is forecast to increase by 6.1% on an NIS basis and 9.0% on a kernel basis in 2026, with Australia rebounding and South Africa tracking stronger year-on-year, though both remain subject to revision. Malawi's constrained volume this season means its DNIS and whole-style kernel will be in good demand.

Moreover, we believe tha both buyers and consumers of macadamias will have to be educated in the clear opportunities how macadamia kernels can be used in buidling a structural and so sustainable demand. 

Freight & Forex: Headwinds for Exporters

Logistics costs are adding pressure to an already complex picture. Container pricing has turned sharply upward as oil prices surge and carriers avoid higher-risk shipping routes, adding cost and volatility to export planning. Meanwhile the USD has firmed on global conflict risk. This results into tightening margins for producers pricing in local currency while adding complexity for cross-currency procurement strategies.

Despite the challenges, Malawi's macadamia story in 2026 is one of resilience and rising ambition. With GACC approval within reach and two world-class production operations driving quality supply, the country is positioning itself in a global market projected to grow from USD 3.0 billion today to USD 6.7 billion by 2036. 

Malawi’s macadamias are remaining a beautiful gem with premium quality production, focused on longterm sustainable commitment.