Morocco Avocados 2026: Taming the Cycle

Morocco Avocados

The Kenitra–Larache coastal strip, a 130-kilometre belt where practically all of Morocco's cultivated avocado area is concentrated is heading into 2026 carrying two things simultaneously: genuine long-term promise and an uncomfortable near-term reckoning.

After the record 2024/25 harvest, the market delivered its verdict swiftly. The new season opened on a challenging note, with prices falling below the previous year’s levels. The cause was not one bad month. It was the natural consequence of Hass avocado's defining biological trait: alternate bearing.

The two-year clock

Hass trees alternate their production every other year, a bountiful harvest one year followed by a lighter recovery harvest the next. For Kenitra–Larache 2026/27 is shaping up as an "on" year. That means the work to moderate the following off-season must begin now. As one agronomist close to the region put it in a recent investor exchange: "The process will take about two years. In 2026/27, farms will reduce the load in anticipation. For 2027/28, the effect of those actions will determine how severe the off-season is going to be. The projection is that by 2028/29, carbohydrate management should stabilise the crop to within a 20% variance between on and off seasons."

That timeline is achievable, but it demands active management. Thinning, precision nutrition programmes, and canopy control are the tools.

The pricing pressure is real and complex

The mid-term pricing outlook are reasonable till good returrns, although the combined impact of expected pricing and the cashflow volatility that alternate bearing creates materially does enforce a pro-active approach on the investment profile of Moroccan avocado.

What can be learned from other producing countries showed a recent agronomical focused visit: "Looking at what Chile has achieved with Hass, the yield outlook may be higher than projected. We also need to remember that the summer heat has affected sizing — smaller fruit is a negative pricing driver. That will be addressed over time. With improved yield, sizing, and consistency, it may improve the ability to drive pricing up."

European buyers have shown strong demand for sizes 12–20, indicating a clear preference for large fruit, which is precisely what better carbohydrate management and heat mitigation can deliver.

The longer view

Beyond the current cycle, the structural demand backdrop remains compelling. The growing interest in Moroccan avocados, sitting within days of European ports with zero EU tariff access, is better positioned than almost any other origin to benefit.

The 2026 season is not the story of Moroccan avocado. It is the management test that determines whether the Kenitra–Larache corridor grows into its potential — or remains a sector that produces well in good years and struggles when the biology bites back.

The farms that invest extra efforts in agronomic discipline now will be the ones that lead in coming years.